Inflation Surges to 12.54% In October strong revival in Service Sector

The Office of the Economic Adviser, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) is releasing Index numbers of wholesale price in India (Base Year: 2011-12) for the month of October, 2021 (Provisional) and for the month of August, 2021 (Final) in this press release. Provisional figures of Wholesale Price Index (WPI) are released on 14th of every month (or next working day) with a time lag of two weeks of the reference month and compiled with data received from institutional sources and selected manufacturing units across the country. After 10 weeks, the index is finalized and final figures are released and then frozen thereafter.

The annual rate of inflation is 12.54% (Provisional) for the month of October, 2021 (over October, 2020) as compared to 1.31% in October, 2020. The high rate of inflation in October 2021 is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, food products, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products etc. as compared the corresponding month of the previous year. The annual change in the components of WPI index and inflation in the last three months is given below.

Index Numbers & Annual Rate of Inflation (Y-o-Y in %) *

All Commodities/Major Groups	Weight (%)	Aug-21 (F)	Aug-21 (F)	Sep-21 (P)	Sep-21 (P)	Oct-21 (P)	Oct-21 (P)
		Index	Inflation	Index	Inflation	Index	Inflation
All Commodities	100.00	136.2	11.64	136.0	10.66	139.1	12.54
I Primary Articles	22.62	155.4	5.93	154.9	4.10	159.7	5.20
II Fuel & Power	13.15	117.9	28.15	114.7	24.81	124.7	37.18
III Manufactured Products	64.23	133.2	11.56	133.8	11.41	134.9	12.04
Food Index	24.38	160.1	3.76	159.8	1.14	164.8	3.06

Note: P: Provisional, F: Final, * Annual rate of WPI inflation calculated over the corresponding month of previous year

The month over month change in WPI index for the month of October, 2021 (as compared to September, 2021) was 2.28%. The monthly change in WPI index for last six-month is summarized below:

Month Over Month (M-o-M in %) change in WPI Index#

All Commodities/Major Groups	Weight	May-21	Jun-21	Jul-21	Aug-21	Sep-21 (P)	Oct-21 (P)
All Commodities	100.00	0.68	0.60	0.97	0.89	-0.15	2.28
I. Primary Articles	22.62	-0.86	1.86	0.85	0.71	-0.32	3.10
II. Fuel & Power	13.15	0.83	0.82	4.07	2.34	-2.71	8.72
III. Manufactured Products	64.23	1.23	0.08	0.53	0.68	0.45	0.82
Food Index	24.38	0.00	-0.06	0.44	0.44	-0.19	3.13

Note: P: Provisional, # Monthly rate of change, based on month over month (M-o-M) WPI calculated over the preceding month

Month over Month Change in Major Groups of WPI:

Primary Articles (weight 22.62%): – The index for this major group increased by (3.10%) to 159.7 (provisional) in October, 2021 from 154.9 (provisional) for the month of September, 2021. Prices of Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (9.48%) and Food Articles (5.05%) increased in October, 2021 as compared to September, 2021. Prices of Non-food Articles (-4.59%) and Minerals (-4.16%) declined in October, 2021 as compared to September, 2021.

Fuel & Power (weight 13.15%):-The index for this major group increased by (8.72%) to 124.7 (provisional) in October, 2021 from 114.7 (provisional) for the month of September, 2021. Prices of Electricity (18.84%), Mineral Oils (7.74%) and Coal (0.94%) increased in October, 2021 as compared to September, 2021.

Manufactured Products (weight 64.23%): – The index for this major group increased by (0.82%) to 134.9 (provisional) in October, 2021 from 133.8 (provisional) for the month of September, 2021.Out of the 22 NIC two-digit groups for Manufactured Products, 18 groups have witnessed increase in prices; 3 groups have witnessed decrease and for one group the prices remained unchanged in October 2021 as compared to September, 2021. The increase in prices is mainly contributed by manufacture of basic metals; chemicals and chemical products; electrical equipment; rubber and plastics products and textiles. Some of the groups that have witnessed decrease in prices are manufacture of food products; motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and printing and reproduction of recorded mediain October 2021 as compared to September, 2021.While the Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products remain unchanged in October, 2021 as compared to September, 2021.

WPI food index (weight 24.38%): The Food Index consisting of ‘Food Articles’ from Primary Articles group and ‘Food Product’ from Manufactured Products group have increased from 159.8 in September, 2021 to 164.8 in October, 2021. The rate of inflation based on WPI Food Index increased from 1.14% in September, 2021 to 3.06% in October, 2021.

Final index for the month of August, 2021 (Base Year: 2011-12=100): For the month of August, 2021 the final Wholesale Price Index and inflation rate for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2011-12=100) stood at 136.2 and 11.64% respectively.  The details of All India Wholesale Price Indices and Rates of Inflation for different commodity groups for October, 2021 are at Annex I. The Annual rate of Inflation (Y- o-Y) based on WPI for different commodity groups in the last six months is at Annex II. The WPI Index for different commodity groups in the last six months is at Annex III.

Response Rate:The WPI for October, 2021 have been compiled at a weighted response rate of 73 percent, while the final figure for August, 2021 is based on the weighted response rate of 93 percent. The Provisional figuresofWPIwillundergorevisionasperthefinalrevisionpolicyofWPI. This press release, item indices, and inflation numbers are available at our home page http://eaindustry.nic.in

Next date of Press Release: Index Numbers of WPI for the month of November,2021 would be released on 14/12/2021.

Annex-I

All India Wholesale Price Indices and Rates of Inflation (Base Year: 2011-12=100) for October, 2021

Commodities/Major Groups/Groups/Sub-Groups/Items	Weight	Index (Latest Month) *	Latest month over month	Latest month over month	Latest month over month	Latest month over month	WPI Based rate of Inflation (YoY)	WPI Based rate of Inflation (YoY)
			2020-2021	2021-2022*	2020-2021	2021-2022*	Oct-2020	Oct-2021*
ALL COMMODITIES	100	139.1	0.57	2.28	-0.56	11.76	1.31	12.54
I. PRIMARY ARTICLES	22.62	159.7	2.02	3.1	1.26	7	4.33	5.2
A. Food Articles	15.26	168.6	1.84	5.05	4.6	0.6	7.05	-1.69
Cereals	2.82	160.5	-1.21	0.75	-0.05	-1.19	-5.24	3.22
Paddy	1.43	162.8	-0.79	0.49	2.95	-1.53	0.61	-0.55
Wheat	1.03	159.4	-1.73	1.72	0.79	0.17	-8.1	8.14
Pulses	0.64	178.9	3.85	0	12.27	9.54	16.06	5.36
Vegetables	1.87	235	9.29	31.87	9.82	-14.41	26.73	-18.49
Potato	0.28	199.6	10.04	4.94	81.4	-39.12	119.25	-51.32
Onion	0.16	290.3	72.27	31.72	-8.39	12.01	8.49	-25.01
Fruits	1.6	160.7	-0.67	8.88	-1.28	7.09	-4.26	8.22
Milk	4.44	157.2	0.52	0.26	5.17	2.17	5.75	1.68
Eggs, Meat & Fish	2.4	154.7	0.66	-2.4	4.1	6.96	4.19	1.98
B. Non-Food Articles	4.12	153.7	4.26	-4.59	-2.26	21.71	2.93	18.41
Oil Seeds	1.12	199.7	1.61	-15.02	2.76	39.27	4.36	26.39
C. Minerals	0.83	179.6	5.36	-4.16	0.82	16.16	-0.2	17.16
D. Crude Petroleum & Natural gas	2.41	106.2	-5.34	9.48	-27.06	51.89	-22.95	66.46
Crude Petroleum	1.95	101.3	-0.71	4.33	-30.98	83.64	-21.97	80.57
II. FUEL & POWER	13.15	124.7	-1.09	8.72	-13.01	29.09	-11.14	37.18
LPG	0.64	116.5	1.48	1.48	-7.27	43.16	3	54.3
Petrol	1.6	121.4	-0.67	5.66	-18.84	58.76	-14.5	64.72
HSD	3.1	129.1	-3.34	9.31	-21.05	55.24	-20.76	71.68
III. MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS	64.23	134.9	0.25	0.82	0.85	11.16	2.21	12.04
Mf/o Food Products	9.12	158.4	-0.14	-0.06	5	13.31	4.38	12.74
Vegetable and Animal Oils and Fats	2.64	186.4	2.4	-0.8	15.67	41.63	20.58	32.57
Mf/o Beverages	0.91	127.3	-0.16	0.32	1.23	1.28	0.41	2.91
Mf/o Tobacco Products	0.51	162.6	1.48	0.81	2.17	2.16	2.07	3.17
Mf/o Textiles	4.88	133.9	1.06	0.9	-3.64	14.6	-2.13	16.64
Mf/o Wearing Apparel	0.81	143.8	0	0.07	-0.28	2.86	-0.07	3.98
Mf/o Leather and Related Products	0.54	118.9	-0.84	0.08	-0.86	0.36	-0.68	1.02
Mf/o Wood and of Products of Wood and Cork	0.77	142.3	-0.15	1.21	-0.49	4.7	0	6.43
Mf/o Paper and Paper Products	1.11	134.5	0.25	1.2	-1.7	11.03	-0.58	12.65
Mf/o Chemicals and Chemical Products	6.47	133	0.6	1.29	-2.26	11.99	-0.26	13.87
Mf/o Pharmaceuticals, Medicinal Chemical and Botanical Products	1.99	134.9	0.38	0.07	3.26	3.85	2.92	3.37
Mf/o Rubber and Plastics Products	2.3	126	0.46	1.94	-0.73	13.31	1.48	14.55
Mf/o other Non-Metallic Mineral Products	3.2	122.4	-0.26	0.41	0.1	3.77	0.95	5.06
Cement, Lime and Plaster	1.64	125.8	-0.17	0.48	0.95	3.16	1.02	5.36
Mf/o Basic Metals	9.65	140.4	0.65	2.41	-0.88	27.24	5.32	28.93
Mild Steel – Semi Finished Steel	1.27	118.9	-1.34	1.8	0.75	21.41	3.45	23.85
Mf/o Fabricated Metal Products, Except Machinery and Equipment	3.15	130.9	1.15	0.23	-1.84	12.94	-0.43	14.22

Note: * = Provisional, Mf/o = Manufacture of

Annex-II

Annual Rate of Inflation Based on WPI (Base Year 2011-12) for last 6 Months

Commodities/Major Groups/Groups/Sub-Groups/Items	Weight	WPI based inflation figures for last 6 months	WPI based inflation figures for last 6 months	WPI based inflation figures for last 6 months	WPI based inflation figures for last 6 months	WPI based inflation figures for last 6 months	WPI based inflation figures for last 6 months
		May-21	Jun-21	Jul-21	Aug-21	Sep-21*	Oct-21*
ALL COMMODITIES	100	13.11	12.07	11.57	11.64	10.66	12.54
I. PRIMARY ARTICLES	22.62	9.4	8.59	6.34	5.93	4.1	5.2
A. Food Articles	15.26	4.25	3.28	0.12	-0.8	-4.69	-1.69
Cereals	2.82	-2.58	-2.77	-2.91	-1.13	1.21	3.22
Paddy	1.43	-0.55	-2.36	-2.77	-2.18	-1.82	-0.55
Wheat	1.03	-2.54	-1.77	-2.86	-0.19	4.47	8.14
Pulses	0.64	12.09	11.56	8.41	9.47	9.42	5.36
Vegetables	1.87	-7.18	-0.78	-8.3	-12.64	-32.45	-18.49
Potato	0.28	-26.11	-31.09	-36.69	-37.39	-48.95	-51.32
Onion	0.16	23.24	64.32	72.01	62.78	-1.91	-25.01
Fruits	1.6	17.81	6.96	-3.45	-2.27	-1.27	8.22
Milk	4.44	2.31	1.65	2.5	3.09	1.95	1.68
Eggs, Meat & Fish	2.4	10.79	8.72	7.97	3.46	5.18	1.98
B. Non-Food Articles	4.12	18.37	18.63	22.94	28.69	29.4	18.41
Oil Seeds	1.12	36	36.76	40.75	53.79	51.13	26.39
C. Minerals	0.83	13.25	15.33	12.55	7.16	28.8	17.16
D. Crude Petroleum & Natural gas	2.41	59.52	46.97	42.25	34.49	43.92	66.46
Crude Petroleum	1.95	108.2	78.47	68.48	56.36	71.86	80.57
II. FUEL & POWER	13.15	36.74	29.32	27.01	28.15	24.81	37.18
LPG	0.64	60.49	31.44	38.14	48.11	54.3	54.3
Petrol	1.6	64.88	59.94	59.04	61.53	54.85	64.72
HSD	3.1	69.16	59.92	53.79	50.69	51.8	71.68
III. MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS	64.23	11.25	10.96	11.46	11.56	11.41	12.04
Mf/o Food Products	9.12	15.58	13.31	13.06	12.73	12.65	12.74
Vegetable and Animal Oils and Fats	2.64	51.95	43.58	42.66	40.72	36.85	32.57
Mf/o Beverages	0.91	0.32	0.08	1.2	1.52	2.42	2.91
Mf/o Tobacco Products	0.51	-0.81	-0.63	2.22	4.97	3.86	3.17
Mf/o Textiles	4.88	11.55	14.17	15.85	17.35	16.81	16.64
Mf/o Wearing Apparel	0.81	1.08	2.84	3.96	3.27	3.9	3.98
Mf/o Leather and Related Products	0.54	1.01	0.09	-0.34	0.25	0.08	1.02
Mf/o Wood and of Products of Wood and Cork	0.77	3.91	3.43	4.39	5.39	5	6.43
Mf/o Paper and Paper Products	1.11	9.77	10.47	11.34	11.34	11.59	12.65
Mf/o Chemicals and Chemical Products	6.47	11.17	10.89	11.56	12.23	13.09	13.87
Mf/o Pharmaceuticals, Medicinal Chemical and Botanical Products	1.99	6.45	4.18	3.31	2.6	3.69	3.37
Mf/o Rubber and Plastics Products	2.3	12.85	11.98	13.14	13.85	12.88	14.55
Mf/o other Non-Metallic Mineral Products	3.2	2.28	2.62	4.52	4.72	4.37	5.06
Cement, Lime and Plaster	1.64	0.16	2.13	3.87	4.32	4.68	5.36
Mf/o Basic Metals	9.65	29.24	29.09	29.09	27.61	26.71	28.93
Mild Steel – Semi Finished Steel	1.27	24.34	23.41	21.39	19.65	20.04	23.85
Mf/o Fabricated Metal Products, Except Machinery and Equipment	3.15	12.15	12.04	14.12	16.09	15.27	14.22

Note: * = Provisional, Mf/o = Manufacture of

Annex-III

Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices (Base Year 2011-12) for last 6 Months

Commodities/Major Groups/Groups/Sub-Groups/Items	Weight	WPI Index for last 6 months	WPI Index for last 6 months	WPI Index for last 6 months	WPI Index for last 6 months	WPI Index for last 6 months	WPI Index for last 6 months
		May-21	Jun-21	Jul-21	Aug-21	Sep-21*	Oct-21*
ALL COMMODITIES	100	132.9	133.7	135	136.2	136	139.1
I. PRIMARY ARTICLES	22.62	150.2	153	154.3	155.4	154.9	159.7
A. Food Articles	15.26	159.6	160.5	161.5	161.7	160.5	168.6
Cereals	2.82	158.5	157.7	156.8	158	159.3	160.5
Paddy	1.43	162.2	161.7	161.2	161.8	162	162.8
Wheat	1.03	157.4	155.7	152.8	153.9	156.7	159.4
Pulses	0.64	179	177.6	172.8	174.5	178.9	178.9
Vegetables	1.87	142.3	165.3	191.2	185.3	178.2	235
Potato	0.28	178	183.1	188.6	201.8	190.2	199.6
Onion	0.16	175	219.7	232.9	231.8	220.4	290.3
Fruits	1.6	179.3	161.3	145.4	155.3	147.6	160.7
Milk	4.44	154.9	154.4	155.9	157	156.8	157.2
Eggs, Meat & Fish	2.4	163.2	165.8	164	158.7	158.5	154.7
B. Non-Food Articles	4.12	145	148.4	152.2	161.5	161.1	153.7
Oil Seeds	1.12	208.9	211.7	216.9	239.6	235	199.7
C. Minerals	0.83	170.9	191.8	187.4	179.6	187.4	179.6
D. Crude Petroleum & Natural gas	2.41	92.2	99.5	101	97.1	97	106.2
Crude Petroleum	1.95	91.4	100.3	102.1	97.1	97.1	101.3
II. FUEL & POWER	13.15	109.8	110.7	115.2	117.9	114.7	124.7
LPG	0.64	104.8	97	102.5	109.9	114.8	116.5
Petrol	1.6	101.4	106.2	116.1	118.4	114.9	121.4
HSD	3.1	106.4	114.5	121.8	120.7	118.1	129.1
III. MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS	64.23	131.5	131.6	132.3	133.2	133.8	134.9
Mf/o Food Products	9.12	157.3	155.8	155.8	157.6	158.5	158.4
Vegetable and Animal Oils and Fats	2.64	191	184.5	185.6	188.7	187.9	186.4
Mf/o Beverages	0.91	125.8	125.6	126.5	127.2	126.9	127.3
Mf/o Tobacco Products	0.51	159.3	157.6	161.1	160.6	161.3	162.6
Mf/o Textiles	4.88	128.5	129.7	130.8	132.6	132.7	133.9
Mf/o Wearing Apparel	0.81	139.9	141.2	141.8	142	143.7	143.8
Mf/o Leather and Related Products	0.54	119.5	117.7	117.3	118.4	118.8	118.9
Mf/o Wood and of Products of Wood and Cork	0.77	138.3	138.7	140.2	140.8	140.6	142.3
Mf/o Paper and Paper Products	1.11	132.6	133	133.5	132.5	132.9	134.5
Mf/o Chemicals and Chemical Products	6.47	128.4	128.3	129.3	130.3	131.3	133
Mf/o Pharmaceuticals, Medicinal Chemical and Botanical Products	1.99	136.9	134.7	134.3	134.1	134.8	134.9
Mf/o Rubber and Plastics Products	2.3	121.2	120.6	121.4	122.5	123.6	126
Mf/o other Non-Metallic Mineral Products	3.2	120.9	121.4	122.6	122.1	121.9	122.4
Cement, Lime and Plaster	1.64	124	124.5	126.2	125.5	125.2	125.8
Mf/o Basic Metals	9.65	133.5	134	134	135.9	137.1	140.4
Mild Steel – Semi Finished Steel	1.27	117	116.5	115.2	116.9	116.8	118.9
Mf/o Fabricated Metal Products, Except Machinery and Equipment	3.15	126.5	127.5	129.3	130.6	130.6	130.9

Note: * = Provisional, Mf/o = Manufacture of

FY 2021-22: Rising Industrial growth, Restrained Inflation and Strong Services Revival

The release of quick estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of September, 2021 shows a sustained increase in industrial production. The IIP, in FY 2021-22, has grown from an average of 121.3 in Q1 to 130.2 in Q2. The IIP in Q2 would have been still higher but for heavy monsoons disrupting mining activity, especially coal and consequently electricity generation, that repressed the growth of overall production index.

The manufacturing index in IIP has held steady and is likely to rise in subsequent months mirroring the eight-month high in Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for manufacturing reaching 55.9 in October, 2021.

A sharp increase in capital goods index from an average of 74.0 in Q1 of FY 2021-22 to 91.7 in Q2 underscores a significant recovery in investment.

There are clear signs of investment being induced by rise in consumption in FY 2021-22 as consumer durables index increases from 91.7 in Q1 to 121.2 in Q2 while consumer non-durables index also moves up from 139.1 to 146.9 across the two quarters.

The release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for the month of October 2021 shows that the decline in annual consumer price inflation has now gradually set in FY 2021-22. The annual CPI inflation has declined from 5.6 per cent in Q1 to 5.1 per cent in Q2 and it is lower still at 4.5 per cent in October of FY 2021-22.

Similarly, Consumer Food Price Inflation (CFPI) has declined from 4.0 per cent in Q1 of FY 2021-22 to 2.6 per cent in Q2 and further to 0.8 per cent in October showing that supply side disruptions to food distribution have considerably eased.

Activity levels have been steadily increasing in FY 2021-22 as reflected in the latest levels of several High Frequency Indicators including E-way bills, power consumption and GST collections. GST collections have soared in FY 2021-22 to reach its second highest monthly collections ever of Rs.1.3 lakh crore in October, 2021, reflecting robustness of growth revival. Tractor sales hit a record high of 1,15,615 units in October 2021, 25 % higher than September, 2021 volumes, indicative of sustained growth in the agricultural sector.

PMI services has accelerated to a decadal high of 58.4 in October, 2021, suggesting a strong revival in contact-based services sector with the weakening of the pandemic. Average Hotel Occupancy rate in leisure destinations rising from about 55 per cent in Q1 of FY 2021-22 to over 60 per cent in Q2 underscores the service sector growing optimism.

Exports are visibly emerging as the engine of growth for India’s economy having crossed $30 billion for the seventh successive month in October of FY 2021-22. On a cumulative basis, India’s merchandise exports in April-October stood at $232.58 billion, up 54.5% over the same period in 2019.

Outstanding credit of the scheduled commercial banks has been steadily rising in FY 2021-22. Retail credit in particular has been noticeably increasing suggestive of strengthening consumption in the economy. According to CIBIL, inquiry volumes have increased by 54 per cent between February and October of 2021 as economic activity has gained momentum.

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